In the aftermath of unanticipated events in IR, politicians and editorialists often call for improved intelligence collection..
Answer each of the following three essay questions. Each essay is worth one-third of the take-home component of the Final Exam. For the Essay questions, I am looking for complete, well-considered, well-written essays with an introduction, a clearly organized and presented body, and a conclusion. While substance is of greatest importance, spelling, grammar, and style will also be considered in grading. This is your opportunity to demonstrate your understanding of the topics raised in the readings and in class discussions, so take advantage of the opportunity. Essays should be typed, double-spaced, Times New Roman, 12 point font. You are limited to no more than 3 pages per question.
1. In the aftermath of unanticipated events in IR, politicians and editorialists often call for improved intelligence collection. Several of the readings in this course suggest that greater attention to analytical process is more likely than greater collection to result in better intelligence. Discuss the arguments on both sides of the issue, then identify which arguments you find more compelling and why. 2. Are existing congressional oversight requirements on covert action too stringent, too lax, or appropriate? Answer by first identifying the relevant issues and arguments, then explaining the logic behind your position.
3. Imagine the following scenario: Pakistan and India become involved in a rapidly escalating dispute over events in Kashmir. Both sides mobilize conventional forces for rapid deployment and place their nuclear forces on a higher alert status. The US President sends the CIA Director to the region to speak with the political leadership in both countries in an effort to de-escalate tensions. Upon her return, the CIA Director briefs a principals’ meeting of the National Security Council, concluding that a nuclear exchange is unlikely. She notes that due to the short distance between capitals, there is no possibility of defense against nuclear-armed short range missiles. Accordingly, the USIC believes that both sides are in a “mutual assured destruction” scenario similar to the US-Soviet Union during the Cold War, such that each will be deterred from nuclear use. With respect to the uncompromising rhetoric coming from each government, she says such is probably intended for domestic audiences and is due to the pressures of electoral politics. She explains the heightened alert of nuclear forces on both sides as intended to signal resolve rather than as a precursor to actual employment. When she finishes, the Secretary of State asserts that the Pakistani civilian government may not want war, but the Pakistani military is in charge of the nuclear arsenal and has its own interests which may differ from those of the civil government. The Secretary of Defense weighs in by saying that the military-to-military contacts with the Pakistanis have diminished since the US slashed economic aid to Pakistan and he has no trustworthy back channels to the highest levels of the Pakistan military command. The CIA Director then suggests the President request an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council at which he should propose an immediate freeze on any additional military movement, giving time for cooler heads to prevail. ….. Identify and discuss at least 3 different things that are wrong with this scenario with respect to things we have covered in readings/discussions/slides about intelligence this term.
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